ALP 8.2%
Incumbent MP
Mark Bailey, since 2017. Previously Member for Yeerongpilly 2015-2017.
Geography
Southern Brisbane. Miller covers the suburbs of Yeronga, Annerley, Fairfield, Tarragindi, Yeerongpilly, Chelmer, Sherwood, Graceville and Tennyson.
History
Miller was created in 2017 as a new name for the seat of Yeerongpilly, which had existed since 2001, and existed under the name of Yeronga from 1950 to 2001. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 1989, and then by Labor until 2012.
Winston Noble served as the first member for Yeronga, holding it from 1950 to 1964. He was succeeded by Norman Lee, who held the seat until 1989.
In 1989 the seat was won by Labor candidate Matt Foley in the Labor landslide that saw the Goss government take power. Foley became a minister in the Beattie government following the 1998 election. In 2001 he was re-elected in the renamed seat of Yeerongpilly, holding it until his retirement in 2004.
Simon Finn won the seat of Yeerongpilly in 2004, also for the Labor Party. He was re-elected in 2006 and 2009, and served as Minister for Government Services, Building Industry and Information and Communication Technology from 2011 to 2012.
In 2012, Finn was defeated by LNP candidate Carl Judge.
Judge quickly fell out with this LNP colleagues, and was expelled from the party in November 2012. Judge sat as an independent until 2013, when he joined the Palmer United Party.
In 2014, there were plans for Judge to run for the Palmer United Party in Kawana, held by Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie. After briefly serving as PUP state leader, Judge resigned from the party and announced that he would run for re-election in Yeerongpilly.
Judge came a distant fourth at the 2015 election, and Labor’s Mark Bailey won the seat with a 14.7% swing after preferences.
Bailey won the renamed seat of Miller in 2017.
Candidates
- Josip Zirdum (Legalise Cannabis)
- Mark Bailey (Labor)
- Paul Darwen (Liberal National)
- Patsy O’Brien (Greens)
- Edward Carroll (Independent)
- Maria Packer (One Nation)
- Christian John Julius (United Australia)
Assessment
Miller is a reasonably safe seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Bailey | Labor | 11,403 | 38.0 | +0.9 |
| Belinda Kippen | Liberal National | 10,969 | 36.6 | -2.7 |
| Deniz Clarke | Greens | 6,567 | 21.9 | +4.9 |
| Ted Starr | Independent | 1,033 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Informal | 816 | 2.7 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Bailey | Labor | 17,439 | 58.2 | +2.6 |
| Belinda Kippen | Liberal National Party | 12,533 | 41.8 | -2.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Miller have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east (64.6%) and the centre (63.7%) while the LNP narrowly won with 50.7% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 18.5% in the west to 26.4% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 24.5 | 64.6 | 8,384 | 28.0 |
| Central | 26.4 | 63.7 | 5,597 | 18.7 |
| West | 18.5 | 49.3 | 5,302 | 17.7 |
| Pre-poll | 18.7 | 54.8 | 4,682 | 15.6 |
| Other votes | 19.7 | 54.5 | 6,007 | 20.0 |
Election results in Miller at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
“Booths in Capalaba“ – I think you mean Booths in Miller
The seat of Miller has changed boundaries quite considerably over the years. Yeronga when I stood as DLP candidate in 1974 was predominantly Yeronga Fairfield Mooroolbark and Annerly. It was suvbuban with increasing unit development. Whilst there were pockets of wealth in Tennyson and on River at Yeronga it was predominantly working class suburbs with large numbers of public servants and workers from Industrial zones to South.The Westrrn part of electorate was then in Sherwood electorate which was far more of a white collar electorate. Liberals John Herbert was State MLA and Jim Killeen federal MHR. Council Aldermen were predominantly ALP. State MLAs Norm Lee and John Herbert along with Jim Killeen depended on DLP preferences to be re elected. Western part less so than Eastern part of current electorate. It is a seat that has been yuppified especially in Northern part of electorate. I doubt if ALP are worried about this seat however as it keeps moving eastwards and Northwards it may be threatened by Greens in a few elections time.
Greens are right to put this as a winnable seat, but they haven’t been continuously campaigning here like in the areas covered by Brisbane/Griffith/Ryan. I think the vote was buoyed last time by a highly active Greens candidate in what Labor thought was a safe seat. If Labor get the slightest hint they’re in trouble they will easily be able to sandbag themselves back to safety with ease. A conservative ALP campaign will help Greens but I don’t see Labor losing here.
If Griffith went south instead of east from South Brisbane, this would be a very winnable seat for Greens, but Moreton and Tennyson Ward really don’t offer the Greens any chance to build up vote outside state elections. An endorsement for the Greens from Nicole Johnston might help?
Greens came close to Labor at the senate election and council election. Incumbents are the main barrier to any breakthrough here.
Thanks for the information @Andrew Jackson & @John.
As mentioned elsewhere, just don’t see this as a target for now with the way the votes are. ALP or LNP would have to drop a fair chunk and then GRN to pick it up. Look maybe 2024 or 2028 for a target, but not this election. Don’t expect a change here but will see if the GRN vote does increase.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
And ofc, Mark Bailey is dating the hottest MP in QLD Parliament. Incumbency is helping him here and when he does retire, it’s game on with the Greens and LNP for a 3-cornered contest.
Mark Bailey is a bit of a hotty too!
He is safe I think
Labor retain, early night for Mark on Saturday.
Prediction: ALP Retain
Labor retain
Labor retain